David Cox, managing director of Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) and Mark Hayward, managing director of National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), commented: “The outcome of today’s EU referendum will create a period of uncertainty among homeowners, buyers, investors, landlords and developers. We can expect international investors to look a lot harder at the UK as a market; this will have a consequential impact upon the house building sector as investment may be stalled.

In the short term we believe that both prices, and rents, will remain stable, but we cannot be certain about the next quarter as political instability, and market unrest, could lead through into prices in the housing market. We believe that the UK housing market is resilient, as is the supply chain that drives it. But as we indicated in our Brexit report1 last month, the bigger impact may well be in the skills necessary to drive UK housing development, and this is now a major concern for UK buyers and renters.”

Stuart Law, Chief Executive of Assetz Property, comments: “Today’s result to leave the EU has only increased the cloud of uncertainty cast over the British property market, but it is not the time to just sit back and watch the events unfold. Now is the time for buy-to-let investors to turn their attention away from the Capital, which could experience difficult times ahead in terms of economic and currency uncertainty. Cash rich investors should instead look to the Northern Powerhouse, which still remains a strong contender for those seeking to protect capital and produce an income well above bank interest rates.

We still expect prime London prices to continue falling and many of the tens of thousands of luxury homes in the pipeline to be mothballed as demand from all over the world fails to meet that potential level of supply. The rest of London will definitely be hit by a perfect storm of several factors hitting house prices which is great news for house-buyers but not for investors and homeowners. We know that the City is going to relocate large numbers of highly paid bankers to Paris, Dublin and the rest of Europe and the loss of these highly paid house buyers and renters can only have a negative effect. Add that to the new buy to let mortgage interest tax and we see no appeal for speculative house price growth and negative cash-flow in London for the foreseeable future.

The rest of the country, however, is likely to be far more stable and we expect house prices to be very slow to react, if at all, as a minor economic slow-down is balanced by low mortgage interest rates and huge demand for housing. Rents outside London will remain strong and continue to grow steadily, created by a modest reduction in house building as the banks reduce lending again.”

John Phillips, group operations director at Spicer Haart and Just Mortgages, says: “It will be an interesting time over the next few days, I expect people to panic like mad and then things will calm down again. Similarly there will be a slight economic slow down while people decide how things will affect them and then it will pick up again after a brief period of adjustment.

The mortgage market had been racing away again reminiscent of pre-2007, but then slowed down a little bit in the couple of months building up to the referendum back to more normal levels and I think that this is what we will stay at until the end of the year. In some ways this is a positive for the housing market as it will bring more normality back to the market. We still have a chronic shortage of houses so I don’t think that house prices will drop or that people will stop buying or selling. What we still need it for house builders to up their level of building again, although this may stay depressed for a little while to come.

The beauty trade wise is that in the next two years we have the best of both worlds, we will still be in the EU but we will also be able to start trading freely with the rest of the world. There are already calls for referenda in other EU countries, so in the next two years the EU is likely to look like a very different place.”



Services

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